Monday, 29 January 2018

Ugly Duckling, Swan or a hunt bird in hand? The JF 17- an open source assessment.

The assessment of a rival’s warplane suffers from a primary lacunae in that the information is secret. There is perforce reliance on secondary sources but this is inevitably heavily dosed with rivalry, jealousy, envy, disdain, NIH ( not invented here!) racialism and similar human failings. The task therefore becomes difficult and the output subjective. To illustrate my observation I will mention the case of two very well known warplanes.
The existence of the Mitsubishi Reisen ( Zero) first came into US knowledge almost a year before Pearl Harbour. The American Volunteer Group (AVG) Flying Tigers sent back reports from China of an astonishing Japanese fighter with unimaginable maneuverability and range. The US experts discounted these frontline reports because such a fighter could not exist. One can sympathize with the experts. Going by their lights such as aeroplane could not be designed. They did not know that the Japanese had got rid of everything which the West would consider “essential”- armour, bullet proof windscreen, self sealing tanks radios etc to produce the ultimate dogfighter that swept everything before it. It is an illustration of how human emotions cloud judgment that when the first wrecks were examined after Pearl Harbour much time was spent and much evident satisfaction gained  on “identifying” what part of the Zero was copied from which American aircraft! In fact this copy allegation was so sustained that much later, Jiro Hirokoshi, the Zero’s Chief Designer was to say, perhaps with testiness, Japanese style “The Zero was a copy of all the aircraft before it!” Even today there is a persistent view that the Zero had erred by sacrificing protection for performance. This misses an important point. Battle damage resistance would have improved pilot survivality but given the Zero’s phenomenal long range and the fact that it operated over the ocean and over tropical jungles did Japan have the resources to ensure pilot recovery? Without pilot recovery battle damage resistance is less meaningful. Note that when the fighting was over the homeland the later versions of the Zero was given a fair measure of battle damage resistance- it was not all Bushido and Banzai as is popularly believed. The real weakness in the Zero was it had to fight an enemy industrially ten times as big. Putting it in another way if Japan had the Corsair and the Hellcat and it was the US which had the Zero the outcome would still be the same. This, by the way, is an argument for maintaining large forces. It pays on the long run.
One would think that things would have improved with time but the MiG 21 case is illustrative. To the Indian Air Force used to the fit and finish of the Mystere IVA, the MiG 21was “brute force supersonics” possibly because it was at the time of its induction the most powerful fighter in IAF service. The truth is both the MiG 21 and the Su7 were the lowest powered aircraft in their categories though one must add the Soviet aircraft often had no exact equivalent because they were designed for different scenarios. In 1966 an Iraqi MiG 21 F 13 defected to Israel and very soon afterwards a leading US Aviation Magazine carried a very detailed examination of the aircraft. Much of the focus was on the poor fit and finish of the aircraft and the mushroom head rivets ( discoloured) used in the rear fuselage. The three shock two position translating cone intake ( the mighty EE Lightning had a fixed cone and encountered intake buzz problems during development) and the semi encapsulated SK ejection seat ( surely the best for high altitude supersonic ejection) must have been covered but the overriding impression one carried away was of gaps and discoloured rivets on the aeronautical equivalent of a combine harvester. Generally the MiG 21 s lack of F104 and F4 Phantoms level of avionics and long range missiles were disparaged. Unfortunately the Viertnam War started in earnest soon after and it was the Americans who had to go back to school- the excellent Red Flag ,the F 15 and F 16  being a typical energetic US effort to correct things.
The point of citing the above is to accept that assessing a rival’s warplane is difficult not only because of the lack of information but also because of the “schooling” one has gone through.  I sometimes envy the Chinese in that they generally know less English and being “unschooled” look at things in their own pragmatic Chinese way.
 With that as both a caution and as disclaiming any infallibility the following is a very personal assessment of the Sino /Pak JF 17.
Enter the (JF 17) Dragon
 Wikepedia carries a review of the JF 17 Xiaolong ( Fierce Dragon) with several pages of references. The figures cited below are drawn from this review and I will presume that the reader has access to the Net to avoid total repetition. I am therefore confining myself to a commentary. Because both aircraft originated as MiG 21 replacements comparison with the LCA is inevitable.
 The Chinese have made so many MiG 21 based derivatives that one can be forgiven for initially thinking it was yet another derivative with a nose job like the Qiang JiJi 5 ,surely one of the ugliest jet as I ever wish to see. This impression is quickly corrected by looking at the Table.
The JF 17 is no MiG 21 clone. It is altogether a more potent aircraft, reminiscent of the Northrop F 20 Tigershark. Though Yang Wei, the Chief Designer, did not have access to the F 20 he may have had opportunity to examine ex Vietnam Air Force F 5A aircraft or airframes and why not-only an arrogant fool will not “flatter” a good piece of engineering by imitating? Mitchell of Spitfire fame was “inspired” by the Heinkel He 70 Blitz’s graceful lines and Yang Wei may have been similarly “inspired” by Welko Gasich/Lee Begin’s work on the F5/F20 series. Northrop of course threw the game away by adding 80% more power and 20% more weight without changing the wing which remained the same as the F5 series. The figures of the wing loading speak for themselves. Digressing for a moment one sees the same reluctance in BAe to design a proper light strike aircraft using perhaps the Hawk systems in a Gnat derived airframe ( see Vayu III/2016- Going against the Wind) instead of trying to fob off native Air Forces with an inappropriate airframe too big for the job.
It would seem that the JF 17’s able Chief Designer Yang Wei carefully studied the F 20 concepts and made very well thought out “nips and tucks” type bespoke tailoring of the F20 design so that the JF 17 did not carry an extra ounce of fat or skin. Comparing the lengths the JF 17 is 0.53 mts longer but that is largely the difference between the F 404 and the RD 33 engine lengths. The empty weight of the JF 17 is 622 kgs. heavier but again if you factor in the weight differences of the two engine types and the additional 5.8 sq.mts of wing area that the Sino/Pak fighter carries the weight is commendable. The weights indicate that either the weight control supervision on the JF 17 was up to US/International design standards or Shri Wang Wei had enough domain expertise to tell the powerful PLAFAF faction where they got off regarding equipment fit standards of the JF 17! One can recount that when the US Navy wanted any additional equipment on the little A4, Douglas’s Ed Heinmann would reputedly take off fuel of weight equal to the additional equipment requested. Of such stories is aviation is made. One final point on weights that should make us think: The JF 17 is a larger aeroplane with a heavier engine and with an all metal structure and yet it is “as near as dammit” the same weight as the largely composite and smaller LCA Mk 1. That is an indication of how much we have erred and how much we can correct.
Having accomplished his weight control Wang Wei pulled off the first of his two coups de main in that the generally conservative approach to the Northrop- like design was modified to a mid wing layout of increased wing area. Despite the weight penalty of longer u/c struts and ring frames to carry through the wing bending loads- an additional 42 kilos somehow comes to mind for the frames-it cured several big problems. The F 20 suffered in that though the warload was increased by twenty percent the low wing meant that fitting the store and the Ground clearance certifications must have been nail biting. The mid wing of the JF 17 avoided this easily and the larger wing area meant that the high induced drag of the F 20’ in high “g” turn and the increased CDo caused by the higher AoA, was lowered and dog fighting and general handling improved significantly. The F 20 gave the later F 16s a hard time during fly off competition and the JF 17 should be very much better. One will also note that sweet handling aircraft e.g. Hunter, MiG 21 and the Lightning were mid wing layouts which reduces or eliminates roll coupling and the JF 17 is a beneficiary. The second of his “coups de Main” was the introduction of the DSI after seven years of parallel preliminary work. DSI reduced weight and drag. Summing up: a very competent airframe has been designed on the lines of the Northrop F 20 but as with the F22/F31 resemblance the Chinese design somehow manages to look more elegant and dainty! There has been some gloating references on the Indian Net circles to the fact that Yang Wei has been recently severely criticized  for the shortcomings of the J 20   ( AMCA team beware!).The Gloaters have missed the significant point. Weapons development Programmes are of National Importance and there is no room for fellowship if things are not delivered. “You fail; you go” is the grim rule for running successful programmes-outside of India.
Programme Management: Hare and Tortoise
The Diagram 1 shows the difference between the timelines of the JF 17 and the LCA. The Sino/Pak team started eight years after us and reached where we are today i.e. a handling flight of three aircraft ten years ago (nota bene!). To rub the salt in properly they did it at one third to one fifth the cost calculated at Present Day Value PDV. Below is my conjecture as to how they did it:
i)                    They chose an utterly conventional layout. That way they could “decouple” any delay of FBW development.
ii)                  They chose no “glamorous” technology and were almost sanction proof from the word go. Being all metal the prototypes could be built faster- the shop floor people were dealing with a material they knew from infancy- and also airframes could be modified faster if things did not work out as predicted. Remembering Boeing’s problems with production of the 787’s composites it is clear that the Chinese by choosing all metal could focus entirely on the airframe development without being harassed by how to do it. As they say in the backwoods “if you are up to your ass in alligators it is difficult to remember that what you had actually set out to do is to drain the swamp!” 
iii)                The Chinese chose a pitch only FBW. This is less “advanced” than a four channel all axis FBW system.There is a size limit below which FBW becomes “doubtful”. To illustrate: would you fit FBW onto a Cessna 172 club trainer? Theoretically yes but in actuality the FBW weight and complexity would kill the bird. In my view an aircraft like the LCA is just teetering on the brink of this size limit. The “pitch only” FBW. This is a very good example of “engineering”  approach. If you think about it, pitch control benefits maximum from FBW in reducing trim drag; roll and yaw have less scope for “improvements” in “performance”.  The Chinese solution is not “brochure glamourous” or exciting but as the inventors of the Panhard-Levassor gearbox said so long ago “C’est brutal mais ce Marche!” – It is rough but it works! As if to add insult to our Injury the Chinese the FBW software was written in C++ and not the more elegant ADA language. The Chinese have reached a stage where they are very respectfully examining what is going on and then instead of being overawed they are doing there own thing. It is this arrogant (and I use it as a compliment!) self confidence that must be noted carefully in assessing any Chinese defence technology product.

The emphasis in flying the thing!
The Chinese flew the first prototype on 25 August 2003 i.e. within four years of funds being sanctioned. They had little faith in that if you calculated enough you would get the thing right first time! Once the third prototype (9/04/2004) was flying they built another three introducing a modified LERX (which needed enlarging) an enlarged Inlet (the RD 33 was smoking like a juvenile delinquent!) and the second significant improvement, a diverter less intake (DSI)  with the first modified prototype flying on 28/04/2006. It must be acknowledged, howsoever grudgingly, the Chinese/Pakistani team got their fighter in Squadron service in two iterations, six prototypes and within seven years of funding. The alarm bells are ringing here! We are being out developed and the advantage of a big economy is being neutralized by Pakistan through sheer efficiency and better organization!
The LCA Mk 1 still needs major redesign about 35-40% before it will be fit for service. I guess that the slow production is a cover to buy time to effect the changes. Those readers who have seen the dramatic cover of Vayu I/2017 with the LCA will have noticed and disapproved of the deep boundary layer diverter plates and the bleed off channels (which would have reduced the local lift fields). The Chinese were working on the DSI since 1997 and introduced it in 2004 claiming reduction in weight, cost and drag. Seventeen years after the first flight the LCA fore fuselage and the merging of the intake bulges with the centre fuselage still requires considerable refining. It is bemusing to compare with the undershot of the JF 17 (Vayu III/2016 p 94). Similarly if one compares the front views of the two aircraft the LCA’s excess of reentrant corners and deep channels indicate excess wetted areas and drags. Out of curiosity I estimated the distance from the rear pressure bulkhead and the tip of the radome for the two aircraft and the JF 17’s figures are 5382 mm compared to the LCA’s 4661 mm. If correct it indicates the effort and care taken ab initio in getting the forebody drag right. Visually the cross sections of the LCA’s forebody have a squarer section compared to the JF 17s and this increased cross section will tell on the transonic drag.  Incidentally the JF 17’s radome works out to 690mm compared to 648mm of the LCA, both in the plane of the antennae but the longer nose length compensates.
The Avionics
Reading so far one would think it was the Chinese who had done everything but that would be injustice to Pakistan’s contribution. Though clearly the Chinese were in the driver’s seat w.r.t. the airframe, Pakistan played a very competent and independent role in the development of the JF 17 particularly in customizing the aircraft for PAF use. Using it’s better networking and contacts with the West, Pakistan took what amounted to an independent charge of the avionics development for its aircraft, the Chinese going in for their own aggregates which were always on offer to Pakistan. It is noteworthy for example that Pakistan chose a Martin Baker PK 16LE seat over the Chinese model. Though the Chinese had launched the JF 17 project in 1991 Pakistan came on board in 1995 and the funding for the actual aircraft development was signed as a contract in 1999. Hit by sanctions- as with us-the Chinese/Pakistan- decided to decouple the avionics development in 1999 and it speaks well of the level of teamwork and the “can do” spirit that both sides were willing to re-engineer the design as and when needed. It will again be noted that choosing an all metal structure for prototypes must have been a great help Today ,with its West Asian connections Pakistan or perhaps the PAF is an “owner “ of the Project and bids fair to do a good job of Marketing. They did what we should have done with the PAKFA. Given our experience with the DARIN mods, clearly the expertise and ability were not lacking; aims and organization were.
The JF 17s Blocks 1&2 equipment fit is more than adequate for the job- HOTAS, MFD/EFIS, Holographic HUD, HUMS, VHF,UHF, ATE. The leading edge and trailing edge flaps are computer controlled to ensure controllability at high AoA. The FBW of production machines has quadruplex FBW in pitch and duplex in roll and yaw. The defensive aids include RWR, MAWS with 3600 scan, chaff flare dispenser and there is a provision for a jammer. Block 3 design was finalized in September 2016. The only sardonic cheer for us is having got a decent fit the PAF is now trying to load it with “goodies” such as IR targeting systems etc. God speed is my wish!
Propulsion
Soviet origin engines were always derided in the West. One remembers that when HAL was trying to see if the HF 24 could be fitted with the Tyumanskii RD 9F the story (probably untrue) went around that the engine was so surge prone that it would flame out on the test bench if someone so much as coughed at the other end of the Bangalore factory. The actual reason was that the Compressor stress limit was Mach 1.4 and the Soviets point blank (naturally!) refused to redesign it for Mach 2 which was our “must have” specifications at that point of time! Shows how fashions dictate “sacred” specifications and opportunities are lost. I mention the RD 9F  because when the Chinese laid their hands on the RD 9F they re-engineered the first stage of the compressor, put in a variable angle inlet stator, completely redesigned the hot section and put in a new afterburner stabilizer of reduced losses. It is possible that the variable inlet stator details were inspired by the close examination of the wrecked J 79s available to the Chinese during the Vietnam era. The fact is that the Chinese Wopen 6 of the F6 fighters did not give the PAF any more than the usual problems in service. This tradition of sensible engineering to improve a base product means that the Taihang WS 13 based on the RD 93 will probably emerge an acceptable engine though it may not have the 4000 hr service life demanded of Western engines. Such design targets are dishonest for countries like us. It is much better to design for quick engine change.
The cost and the prices
Cost consciousness is important because if there is a significant lowering in the cost of projects as has happened with the JF 17 , it means that there is more money to go around for other projects- bullet proof jackets or Infantry assist vehicles for example. Unchecked spending without results can cause a ‘drought” which will wither other possible and vital projects. The current asking price for the JF 17 is roughly $25 M which works out to $3800/kg compared to the $17,000-$21,000 per kg for current Western aircraft. The usual explanation is that these prices are “political/friendship” prices. This is wrong. One’s own considerable experience in the Industry confirms the following:
a)      The only cost really known for certain is the RM (raw materials) and the BOC (bought out complete) costs.
b)      When it comes to the labour costs escalation starts from the shop floor supervisor and goes right up the chain, though everyone concerned will scream blue murder and horror at the merest suggestion of downwards revisions.
c)      When it comes to overheads it runs riot and again figures are padded up just to be safe. For PSU’s this practice is safe but drives up project costs which finally affect local development.
d)     In technology transfer a five- fold reduction in costs is usual.
This is not the entire picture. Thanks to our colonial past there were rules that were actually designed so that India would NOT develop a local aeronautical capability. Some of these were:
i)                    An import duty structure that allowed complete aircraft to be duty free, accessories had a substantial duty and raw materials were prohibitively taxed.
ii)                  A system of “aircraft quality materials” (AQM) was the norm where the sources of this AQM was invariably from the Home Country.
These laws and there were many may or may not have been repealed but the spirit lives on and the Bureaucracy with nothing to gain and not tamed by the National Leadership, staunchly obstructs any attempt to reform. One will hear many arguments for maintaining status quo but there has been little reasoned debate as was done in China and Russia who do not have this anachronism. Finally with PSU’s operating at a cost plus 15% basis and Western Weapons Suppliers with a stock of horror stories if any initiative inimical to their interests it is we who have been “schooled “ into believing what should be the price of warplanes. The Sino Pak prices are realistic and can be reduced further.
An estimate of performance
Readers are referred to Vayu (I/2015) in which I had said that the LCA Mk1 would not be able to outperform the JF 17 as a fighter. It can be used as a strike aircraft but the outcome of any dogfight would be in favour of the FC17. I have not seen anything in the past two years that need me to make a drastic revision of that view. The only parameter the LCA Mk1 potentially is superior to the JF 17 is in TO performance The JF 17 will need a 25% longer run but even that difference will be reduced as this is not corrected for the CD0 and the reported lower engine installation efficiency for the LCA. Readers may raise the point that an aircraft with a sprightlier take off should perform better but this is not so because at combat speeds the CDo drag of the LCA will be much higher. Incidentally I did compare the TO values for the LCA and the Harrier and assuming equally efficient intake design and CDo s .The LCA should be marginally better/similar to the Harrier in the STO mode. If the Navy’s disappointment is purely technical than the weight and drag problem in the LCA is still significant.
What perhaps HAL should do is to take a deep breath and clean up the entire fore fuselage with particular attention to the blending of the front fuselage with the mid fuselage. The clutter is visible from afar and must be worse in detail! If ADA is ready with the DSI, (only if!)  it should be brought forward. They should do it in metal to begin with so as to get the prototype right quickly rather than have a nice sub project of making it in composites! With the clean up and the weight reduced the LCA stands a very good chance but not as things stand at the moment. C’ne marche pas! The LCA is unlikely to be clear for production until 2019-2020-if that!
Like the LCA,  the JF 17 was a MiG 21 replacement but it is now something more – nearer to a F 16 supplement at one fifth/one sixth the price and no threats of being sanctioned in which the PAF has much experience!.It has potential to become “fashionable” i.e. over equipped .What the JF 17 lacks it does not need and Pakistan should leave the aircraft well enough alone. Summing of this section:
i)                    The LCA has the potential to have significantly better field performance even at the current empty weight of 6650kg.
ii)                  In low level OAS the small size and the 5% better fuel fraction (internal fuel/ installed cold thrust) the LCA may be a better choice.
iii)                In any close combat as of the present the LCA is inferior. ( See Vayu I/2015)
iv)                Thanks to more power and a bigger ( by about  52 mm ) antennae the JF 17 is the better BVR platform but I think it is stupid to fit BVRs simply and just because they can be fitted on an aircraft of this size. BVR capability is a specialized capability which ruins general capabilities to install.
v)                  The current availability (raw figure)  of the JF17 is 113hrs/aircraft/year as of 2016. There has been two accidents in 19,000 hrs which is close to the 1 per 10,000 hrs for “bedded down” equipment and indicates  reliability,
vi)                Production has now moved to Block 2 and about 90 airframes are delivered or on the slipway.
At this point of time the JF 17 is the better aeroplane and the LCA is not even achieving its potential in the areas where it has the potential to be better! Sadly the comparisons are academic. At this point the PAF can fly 200-250 OAS sorties per day on the JF 17. The LCA?
Exports
Any Asian product is bad mouthed. The twelve Hindustan HT2s supplied to Ghana were routinely disparaged by the foreign instructors seconded to the NAF. The sturdiness, low prices and the fact that they served the IAF for over thirty years “faults and all” was overlooked. The more recent case of the ALH refers. The Chinese are in a better position. Over the years they have exported fair numbers to European, African and Asian Customers and have acquired useful skills in marketing, selling and sustaining a product on the field.  The FC17 has attracted the attention of about 21 customers with Myanmar, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia as confirmed customers. The weak link was the RD33/93 engine of Russian origin but if the Russians refuse the engine because of fears of the JF 17 cannibalizing MiG 29 sales they have little choice because the Chinese will develop the WS13 Taihang. Even if the TBOs are not quite upto the ‘international standards” their prices will be extremely attractive and ‘international standardsare not an operational necessity. I would not have minded buying the JF 17 myself. The Chinese have exported over two thousand aircraft and the FC17 bids fair to add to those numbers and customers list.
The reason why
The JF 17 is either an unremarkable warplane or a coolly brilliant piece of engineering improvisation superbly managed. The judgment will depend on one’s “schooling” but what cannot be denied is that the Sino Pak team has raised five squadrons on the type. There is an old adge  “ An engineer is a person who can do for sixpence which any fool can do for six shillings”. The JF 17 demonstrates that. The LCA’s so called “technical superiority” has been its undoing and If we confine ourselves up to correct the technical shortcomings of the LCA Mk1 then we shall be setting ourselves up to fail in the AMCA. The present situation is bleak and near collapse. I do not see any evidence of the energy and the interested management that is the need of the hour.

The organization for effective development is not the present topic but that is the crux. What the Sino /Pak team achieved with the JF 17 they can do in AFVs and submarines and rifles and every item required in warfare. We shall be out resourced and out timed- and out gunned! India’s weapons development programmes are in the “fire and forget “mode which will not work in a hundred years. By preoccupation with other “priorities” The Politician, the Bureaucracy and the Armed Forces have abdicated their role of leadership in weapons development to the technocrats.. None of the above, singly, can manage a Weapons anymore than the blind men could “see” the elephant. Yet the solution lies in them working as a team with respect for the undoubted competence there is in each organization. Unthinkable in our bureaucracy dominated committees, Pakistan had serving Air Marshalls in charge of the project who reported directly to the Air Chief whereas we had the IAF actually ‘shorted out” so that the LCA project could be “Fast tracked”! The Cheek of it! Left to themselves the Technical people went on a Technical Picnic!
The Armed Forces whose responses have been clumsy and indignant rather than studied and moral (why did it accept pressure when things were obviously out of control and so much is at stake? Recall Air Marshall Dowding’s stand just before the Battle of Britain: He stood up to that old steamroller Churchill. Of course he paid the price but he saved Fighter Command for the Battle. The Bureaucracy’s sniping of the Military- I think the business about Batmen being one of the latest must stop or be regulated. If the Batman must go so should the Chuprassi!. This tribal warfare between the Bureaucracy and the Forces has to be tamed and yoked by the Political Leadership. The country must form a WEDOG (weapons development Group) so that realistic threat scenarios are generated for the next say ten years that we need to become sanctions independent. China used its large Armed Forces and its nuclear deterrent to buy the ten years it needed. Given our large armed forces and our nuclear capability we have those ten years. We have the expertise to do so-if we work in a team. Realistic threat identification will lead to realistic specifications. Realistic specifications will reduce technical challenges and prioritize weapons programmes. Close monitoring will stop shocking wastage and ensure timeliness. We may yet surprise the World.

Table 1.


Parameters
JF 17
F20
LCA Mk1
F 16
F7
Length
14.93
14.4
13.2
14.52
 13.86
Target Volume
1.34
1.03
1.0
1.44
0.866
Wing Area
24.4
18.6
37
27.87
23
Empty Weight
6586
5964
6580
6857
5275
Internal Fuel ( KG)
2350
2450
2458
3162
2080
Disposable Load
5914
6510
6680
9200
3825
Wing  Loading Clean/MTO
312/ 512
485/ 670
256/ 356
372/ 576
306/408
Fuel Fraction
0.45
0.5
0.502
0.47
0.47
Dish Dia.
 ( estimate)
690mm
n.a
648
n.a
n.a
Nose Tip to rear pressure bulkhead
5382
n.a.
4661
n.a.
n.a.
TO Run
1.27
1.84
1.0
1.49
0.91

1.      Pakistan has an excellent replacement for the F7
2.      The LCA’s 10% higher disposable load should be noticed. With drag reduction and weight improvement it should be quite respectable but there is no evidence of any timely addressing of these long pending tasks.



Table 2: Costs sanctioned ( Rs. Crores unless otherwise stated)  and PDV( present day value)
Sl
Date
Amount
PDV
Remarks
1
1983
560
17,920

2
1993
1628
16512
FSED
3
2001
3302
15172

4
2009
2475
5305


Total

54,969

JF 17 project





1998
$ 500M=2250 Crores INR
Rs. 13,065
Equally shared by Pakistan and China

Note: The above does not include Rs 1729 sanctioned by the Navy ( 2003) for the NLCA PDV ( Rs. 6512 crores)
This excludes Rs. 4353 (2432+1921) PDV Rs. 9331 crores sanctioned for LCA MK2.
If we further ignore the Rs 560 crores sanctioned in 1983 the comparison of costs on the common base of PDV is:
LCA ( 16512+15172+5305)= 36,989
JF 17 ( 13,065)= 13065
Financially we are being ‘ resourced” by at a rate of 2.83 :1 at least.

Readers will be interested to compare that the entire XST/F 117 stealth development programme was funded in 1973-1978 to the tune of 4997 crores PDV in small stages to produce the required cutting edge technology aircraft. Unless financial management is tightened we will not have the funds for local development.

Prof.Prodyut Das

17 comments:

  1. This is the first time I am reading your article, I really liked the way the facts as is and not try to sling any mud (just pointing out the mistakes in so very factual way). Thank you so much for writing this article.

    Piyush

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Piyush
      Graet that you enjoyed it. Let no one tell you that we cannot make a good commercially c0ompetitive warplane because it is difficult. Aircraft are surprisingly easy to design if YOU know your own mind.
      BTW this is for all readers- you can publish the article in your own web sites for any non commercial use but pl. cite source etc.

      Delete
  2. The bias screams throughout the article, poor sense of objectivity. A half baked article without complete facts. Cringed a lot while reading this.

    I guess the decision of bashing LCA was taken before open source evaluation. Praising the JF to have played the masterstroke during sanctions and not quoting about tejas for the same is obviously intentional and quite imaginable. Imagine the possibility of buying a GE engine while you have sanctions!

    Praising a pitch based FBW and hush hushing for the same in LCA is obvious. I started reading the article with the intention to read about JF but it became a biased comparision match w/ LCA.

    I can go on articulating more facts wrt to hardpoints, better engine, derby firing, HMDS, Litening pods, LEVCONs, OBOGS, AESA integration tests done, BVR capability. BVR is not stupid sir!

    The timeline in the Vayu article showing the development times of the aircraft shows the star mark of a speculation of being a politicised event just fuels your hate for LCA. Now I speculate to say that either you are filled with hate of the current political setup under the current incumbent political party or you didn't get the pie of the cake during the development of tejas. What is the truth, who knows.

    It is futile to compare the LCA w/ JF, because LCA is replacing the mig-21 with sukhois and rafales and mig-29 in the frontline. The JF is the frontline offering from pak after the ageing F-16s. Comparing a frontline fighter of pak with third line fighter of india is childish. Replacing our extensive inventory of mig-21 is enough orders for HAL for next 10years atleast, there is no capacity neither the requirement to pitch LCA for exports.

    The delay of LCA was the failure of bureaucracy, academia and air force. Blaming any one of them singlehandedly is wrong.

    Finally regarding your article, the latin phrases might feel great to the writer to given nuances about the article. But every reader is not as learned as you in multiple languages to know the latin/whatever language idiom.

    PS - the comments with links are spam comments in the blog. Pls search for SEO stuff to make the blog more noticeable.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I found your comments very interesting.

    IF you had read my article without hurrying to conclusions you would have noticed that I have always supported a conventional layout because one can BYPASS the hold up of the FBW. The Tejas team has used the sanctions as an explanation for the delay.In China they don't let you do that, I think.

    I think BVR is stupid for this class of aircraft. You don't. We must wait for the next punch up before we can have a definite answer.
    Only the people making money out of BVR are its most ardent proponent. Experience about wonder weapons so far is usually rueful or bitter.BVR is fine if you have an aircraft like the SU 30 WITH AWACS support.

    I was being polite.Those events were political in that someone was retiring/ transferring etc in every case.
    The LCA is not replacing anything yet- I await such times.
    Air Force/ Bureaucracy/ Academia? ADA????

    I did not know about the spam wallahs.SEO?BTW I presume you are not spamming!
    Anyway thanks for your passion. Have a good day.

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  4. Hello Professor,
    I am an avid reader of all of your posts, I find them to be very well written.
    I was reading up about the NAL SARAS program and the HAL/NAL RTA (Regional Transport Aircraft) online. Details of these programs especially the RTA program are very scarce and are not up to date. I would greatly appreciate it if you could share any details you may know about these civil aviation programs, their current state and the general state of indigenously built civil aviation aircraft.
    Thanks.

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  5. Hello Unknown
    Why Unknown - unless you are under some legal act that binds you so.
    I have been thinking along those lines myself.
    My view is that we are wasting money re-inventing the wheel when we should see what we can do with the HS 748 and Dornier technology we have already got. May be sometime I willd do a piece. I have just finished one on teh RFI for 110 ten fighter. If gets published you can see it in Vayu next issue.
    I am glad you like my writing . Thanks

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  6. Sir why did you stop writing on tejas.
    you haven't posted any new blogs here.
    is there any other site where you write your blogs.?

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  7. wraith 96
    In my latest post I have commented on the LCA.-see the Riddle of the RFI.
    I might start a new blog because of operational difficulties but it will be under the same generic name so you can hit it but no separate blog for the present.

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    ReplyDelete
  9. I can live with the numerical assessment of aircraft properties (drag co-efficient among others) by the Professor. The other non-aerodynamic conclusions are dislocated from reality. The Chinese were designing an aircraft without the handicap of ASQRs. After all not a single JF17 has been inducted in the PLAAF. The Pakistan AF are beggars (both metaphorically and financially) and without the luxury of choice, happily tucked into the pottage offered by the Hans. After the worldwide scraping of the obsolete inventory barrel for Mirage IIIs, the PAF were close to looking at the end of the road. So to attribute superior design craftsmanship and tactical air-warfare nous to an act of alms-giving is quite breathtaking. If the PLAAF had even inducted one squadron of JF17, I would be readily accepting the Professorś line of argument.

    The second major departure from reality is the PDV and cost assessment. Quite the classic case of missing the wood for the trees. The LCA is close to 55% indigenous (by component cost), any cost paid to HAL for producing a squadron will end up circulating the money within the Indian economy to the tune of half the squadron's outlay. The JF17 will do no such thing to the Paki economy apart from perhaps employing metal cutters, assembly personnel and painters.

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    Replies
    1. The engine, radar,ejection seat, raw materials,radome, gun ( if yet fitted)are not indigenous. Is it 55% indigenous?

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